The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predictions have been released. The Atlantic basic has already started to heat up and it is only June. So far for 2024, we have seen record heat and temperatures in many countries in the Atlantic hurricane belt. And, there have been a couple tropical disturbances that have popped up on the radar.
Based on historical records, there is a correlation between adverse heat and active hurricane seasons. Although there is no fool-proof method to accurately predict exactly what is going to happen, we can use forecasts from weather scientists to get a sense of what could occur.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
Here is a snapshot of what the major hurricane forecasters have estimated for 2024:
NOAA: 17-25 named storms, 8 – 13 hurricanes, 4 – 7 major hurricanes.
Accuweather: 20 – 25 named storms, 8 – 12 hurricanes, 4 – 7 major hurricanes.
Colorado State University: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Risk: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.
University of Arizona: 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.
NOAA: “Expect an Above-Normal 2024”
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center in the NOAA National Weather Service predict an above-normal hurricane season in 2024. Factors such as “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear” are all contributing factors to this year’s prediction. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks, issued a reminder to be prepared because of the unpredictability of severe weather and emergencies. Even though we are at the end of one of the strongest El Ninos in history, the NOAA predicts a quick transition to La Nina.
Accuweather: “2024 Will be Worse Than Last Year”
For months Accuweather has been warning about a hyperactive 2024, and a frighteningly volatile peak period. Now that the season has started, we are face to face with the possibility that this year could be one for the record books. Lead hurricane forecaster at Accuweather, Alex DaSilva, said that activity in 2024 is expected to be higher that the historical average. This means that we are likely to see an increased number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct impacts in the United States. To quantify expectations, Accuweather has forecasted 20 – 25 named storms, 8 – 12 hurricanes, 4 – 7 major hurricanes and 4 – 6 direct impacts in the USA.
Colorado State University: “Well above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season”
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team has predicted that there will be 23 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. They predict 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes will form this year. CSU hurricane researchers based their prediction on record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The CSU forecast also included probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall – 62% for the entire United States coastline, 34% for the United States east coast, 42% for the Gulf Coast and 66% for the Caribbean. According to the team, the 2024 hurricane season has characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020.
Tropical Storm Risk: “Anticipates a hyper-active season with activity”
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)’s forecasters warns that we should prepare for a hyper-active season 70% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm. Additionally, they have also surmised that waters in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea will be warmer than normal by the August to September peak season. La Nina is expected to persist during these months into the later months in the year. Based on these factors, the TSR team expects 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. TSR forecasts are compiled using a variety of variables such as Atlantic MDR sea surface temperatures, trade wind speed, ENSO and analog years for comparative purposes.
University of Arizona: “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year”
Kyle Davis and Xubin Zeng, forecasters at the University of Arizona’s Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences department, are warning of a very active 2024 hurricane season. The team has forecasted 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. To prepare forecasts, the team relies on several approaches – a Random Forest approach based on seasonal forecast date, forecasts for sea surface temperatures for July/ August and September, 25 ensemble members from 1981-2016 and 51 members from 2017-2024 and modelling using data from 1981 to 2007. Based on the data they have seen so far, the team expect storms to “form easily and often” in 2024.
Further Reading
For reviews on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predictions, please visit the following links:
NOAA: NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Accuweather: Super-Charged Atlantic Hurricane Season Poised for Intense Activity
Tropical Storm Risk: April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024
University of Arizona: 2024 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis
StormGeo: Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2024
WESH: 2024 Hurricane Season Brings New Risks
Weatherbell: Hurricane Season from Hell First Look
Artemis: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Conversation: Hurricane Forecast Points to a Dangerous 2024 Atlantic Season
Fox Weather: NOAA Issues its Most Aggressive Hurricane Season Forecast on Record
Image: FEMA
