Forecasts for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It’s June 1st. Do you know what the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts are?

Weather scientists have made their pre-season predictions and they range from less active than usual to above average. Those analyses which expect the same amount or fewer storms than previous years identify El Nino as the cause. An El Nino occurrence could assist in suppressing tropical storm development. However, this depends on the strength of El Nino – a weak occurrence, will not have a major impact on storm development.

In 2022 there were 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and 2 tropical depressions. When compared to the period 1991 to 2020, 2022 was normal, but it was the 6th costliest season on record. Hurricane Ian was the most notable storm of the year, and it severely impacted the Florida Keys and other cities in the state of Florida. The storm caused over millions in damage, claimed over 100 lives and caused widespread damage and destruction.

In addition to the above, 2022 will also be remembered because of the following facts:

There was no tropical development in August;
Hurricane Nicole made landfall on November 10, 2022, as a Category 1 storm;
Hurricane Ian’s rainfall totals were a 1 in 1000-year event for areas in Florida;
Over $7 billion dollars in disaster loans, grants and insurance payments were disbursed in Florida as a result of Hurricane Ian;
The NOAA hurricane hunter flew over 582 hours, passed through hurricane eyes 65 times and deployed over 1,700 scientific instruments;
Damage throughout the Atlantic hurricane belt was over $53 billion dollars.

Attention is now fully on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be just as active or less active than the 2022 season.

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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

Forecasters are expecting a near average season with a lesser number of storms forming. Here is a summary of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts:

WESH: 14-18 named storms; 7-9 hurricanes; 2-4 major hurricanes
Storm Geo: 15 named storms; 7 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
Accuweather: 11-15 named storms; 4-8 hurricanes; 1-3 major hurricanes
Colorado State University: 13 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 major hurricanes
University of Arizona: 9 hurricanes; 5 major hurricanes
Tropical Storm Risk: 12 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 intense hurricanes
NOAA: 12-17 named storms; 5-9 hurricanes; 1-4 major hurricanes

1. WESH Hurricane Season Forecast

Eric Burris, a Meteorologist with the Florida-based WESH media network predicts that there will be 14-18 named storms; 7-9 hurricanes; and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast goes into detail about the areas in the United States that have the greatest risk of a tropical system. Some of the areas which have an above-average chance of a storm are the east coast of Florida, the west coast of Florida and the Carolina coast. The forecast is based on several sources such as Lezak’s Recurring Cycle which looks at previous storm activity to identify cycles and repeating patterns.

2. Storm Geo Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2023

StormGeo is a weather intelligence company that provides software and data that helps clients to make better decisions. They expect 15 named storms; 7 hurricanes; and 3 major hurricanes. The 15 named storms prediction is higher than the 30-year average, but the number of hurricanes matches the 30-year average. The forecast also notes that south Florida and the northern Bahamas are at greater risk of a hurricane impact. Also of note is the identification of analog seasons, which are seasons with similar variables. Based on ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow patterns, the 2023 analog seasons are 1951, 1953, 1958, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009.

3. AccuWeather’s 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Accuweather’s initial forecast anticipates 11-15 named storms; 4-8 hurricanes; and 1-3 major hurricanes. The team of tropical weather forecasters expect that 2023 will be less active that many of the seasons since 1995 and may mirror storm development in 2022. The forecast details some of the areas which are projected to have direct impacts. United States (Florida), Puerto and the Virgin Islands may see between two and four direct impacts this year. Dan Kottlowski, a renowned meteorologist highlighted that El Nino may occur in the second half of summer. He stressed that although hurricane seasons with El Nino patterns are less active than usual, there is still the possibility for storms to develop.

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4. Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Weather & Climate Research

Forecasts for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from the CSU researchers reveal a slightly below average season. This is largely due to the likely development of El Nino. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the Caribbean are much warmer than normal. As a result, the team expects 13 named storms; 6 hurricanes; and 2 major hurricanes. These forecasts which began 40 years ago, are now based on a statistical model and four models – European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici. The team will release forecast updates on June 1, July 6 and August 3.

5. University of Arizona Hurricane Forecasting Team

The hurricane forecasting team of the University of Arizona is expecting a very active hurricane season for 2023. They see similarities between 2023 and 2017, which spawned major hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, and Maria. However, the team does not expect this year to be as damaging. The University of Arizona uses a model created by one of its professors Xubin Zeng, and a former graduate student, Kyle Davis. Based on the model, which has provided accurate forecasts since 2014, they are forecasting 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Although they expect El Nino to occur, they believe that the extremely warm ocean surface temperatures in the Atlantic could increase hurricane activity.

6. Tropical Storm Risk’s Pre-Season Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2023

Tropical Storm Risk, which is a project by the University College London predicts 12 named storms; 6 hurricanes; and 2 intense hurricanes. They anticipate that 2023 will be a season with below normal activities. This is partially due to average temperatures in the north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea and weak El Nino conditions. These factors, if they occur at the expected times, may suppress north Atlantic hurricane activity. Forecasts provided by the Tropical Storm Rick team are based on a primary model that divides the north Atlantic into three regions. The model then determines forecasts for each region and then sums them to obtain a hurricane forecast for the entire region.

7. NOAA’s 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

According to NOAA forecasters, there is a 40% chance of a near normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The team forecasts 12-17 named storms; 5-9 hurricanes; and 1-4 major hurricanes. The season is expected to be less active because of factors such as a potential El Nino. However, the writeup explains that any impacts El Nino may have on tropical storm development could be affected by conditions in the Atlantic Basin. One of the conditions on the watch list is extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Another condition is an above-normal West African monsoon, which is known to produce waves that travel to the east and bears strong and long-lasting tropical storms.