The Weather Channel, one of the premier resources for tropical weather has warned that El Nino could influence the 2023 hurricane season. The phenomenon occurs when there are warmer than normal surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It is expected that El Nino could develop in summer 2023 and impact the Atlantic hurricane season.
A recent article by Jonathan Erdman which was published on the Weather Channel website, analysed the possibility of El Nino. The article examines:
- El Nino’s impact on the hurricane season
- What happened during the most recent El Ninos
- The uncertainties with El Nino
How El Nino Could Influence the 2023 Season
There were several important observations in the article. One was that El Nino can reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. This was supported with analysis of all hurricane seasons since 1966. The results indicate that during El Nino, there were approximately five fewer storms, two to three fewer hurricanes, and one to fewer Category 3 or stronger hurricanes than La Nina or neutral years.
The article also reminds readers that there are some uncertainties with El Nino. Although El Nino can impact the hurricane season, it depends on factors such as:
- If it actually develops as expected
- How fast it develops
- How strong it becomes
Expectations of an El Nino were triggered by the ending of La Nina earlier in the year. In a March 2023 analysis, Dr. Robert Rohde, an American scientist and physicist revealed that La Nina had ended and a transition to El Nino is very likely. Based on CPC/IRI analysis, the most recent La Nina event which began in 2020, may be followed by neutral conditions for a few months. The analysis also revealed that 2023 has been extremely warm, with February 2023 being the 9th warmest February since 1850.
To read the full Jonathan Erdman article, visit the following link: How El Nino Could Influence the Hurricane Season
Further Reading
For more information about the potential El Nino, please visit the following links:
Berkeley Earth: February 2023 Temperature Update
World Meteorological Organisation: WMO Update – Prepare for El Nino
NOAA Enso Blog: May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño knocking on the door
Axios: El Niño forming quickly and could be “significant” event, NOAA finds
Weather and Radar: El Niño May Return in 2023
Source: The Weather Channel: How El Nino Could Influence the Hurricane Season
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